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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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