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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
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The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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