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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freig ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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