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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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