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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
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Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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