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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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