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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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