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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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