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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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