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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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