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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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