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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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