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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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