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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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