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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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