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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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