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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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