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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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