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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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