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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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