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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
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The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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