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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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