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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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