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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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