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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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