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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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