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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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