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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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