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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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