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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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