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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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