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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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