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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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