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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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