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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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