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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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