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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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