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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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