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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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