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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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