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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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