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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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