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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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