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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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