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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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