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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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