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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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