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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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