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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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