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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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