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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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