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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
Monday, 18 April 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE 1.43 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 1.43 percent week over week to averaging $38.65 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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