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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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