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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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