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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 April 16
CAPE INDEX JUMPED 70% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 01 April 16
ASSESSING THE DRY BULK MARKET AT ROCK BOTTOM - CLARKSONS
While the opening months of the year are typically a weak period for the dry bulk market, the downturn so far this year has been severe. Earnings h ...
Friday, 01 April 16
NINE AM - TIME TO GET AN INDONESIAN LANGUAGE VERSION OF YOUR CHARTERPARTIES - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
For several years, Indonesian law (Article 31, Law Number 24 of 2009) has required that memoranda of understanding (" ...
Friday, 01 April 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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